Nvidia Eyes $65B Revenue as China Sales Thaw and Intel Alliance Deepen

Nvidia stands at a critical juncture as it prepares to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, 2026. While the broader technology sector has recently grappled with a reassessment of artificial intelligence's immediate return on investment, Nvidia’s fundamental trajectory remains anchored by a massive, structural transition in global computing infrastructure. The company’s projected revenue of $65 billion for the quarter—a staggering 65% increase over the previous year’s record of $39.3 billion—suggests that the appetite for high-performance compute is far from saturated, despite growing skepticism on Wall Street.

A significant catalyst for the upcoming report is the unexpected shift in the regulatory landscape regarding China. Nvidia’s initial $65 billion guidance was issued under the conservative assumption of zero revenue from the Chinese market due to stringent export restrictions. However, with recent government clearance to resume sales to this critical market, there is a high probability of a 'beat and raise' scenario. This reopening of a major geographic segment provides a substantial safety net against any potential softening in domestic hyperscaler demand and could push quarterly sales well beyond the company's already lofty forecasts.

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The $5 billion investment in Intel to secure manufacturing capacity for 2028 semiconductor chips is a masterstroke of supply chain diplomacy.

Beyond immediate quarterly figures, Nvidia is aggressively de-risking its long-term roadmap through strategic industrial alliances. The $5 billion investment in Intel to secure manufacturing capacity for 2028 semiconductor chips is a masterstroke of supply chain diplomacy. By diversifying its foundry partners beyond TSMC, Nvidia is ensuring that its next-generation architectures will not be throttled by geopolitical tensions or capacity constraints in Taiwan. This partnership also signals a pragmatic shift in the semiconductor landscape, where former rivals collaborate to sustain the sheer scale of AI infrastructure requirements mandated by the global transition to accelerated computing.

CEO Jensen Huang’s core thesis—that the world is currently replacing a massive, multi-trillion-dollar installed base of non-AI software with AI-ready technology—points to a multi-year replacement cycle rather than a fleeting bubble. Huang views this as a fundamental technology shift that will unfold over years, suggesting the sector has not yet reached its apex. From a valuation perspective, the stock’s retreat from its October 2025 high of $212.19 has compressed its forward price-to-earnings ratio to levels reminiscent of the 2018-2019 period. For institutional investors, this combination of high-double-digit growth and normalized multiples presents a compelling entry point before the next phase of the AI rollout.

As the market looks toward the February 25 announcement, the focus will likely remain on data center margins and the pace of the transition to the newest Blackwell and Rubin architectures. If Nvidia can demonstrate that its proprietary CUDA software ecosystem continues to lock in developers while its hardware remains the gold standard for training and inference, the current dip in share price may be viewed in retrospect as a brief consolidation period in a much larger secular bull market. Investors should watch for guidance regarding the 2027 fiscal year, as the integration of China sales and the Intel manufacturing roadmap will be pivotal in maintaining Nvidia's dominant market position.